New York Art Week Will Test the Market’s Momentum

A version of this article originally appeared in The Back Room, our lively recap funneling only the week’s must-know art industry intel into a nimble read you’ll actually enjoy. Artnet News Pro members get exclusive access—subscribe now to receive the newsletter in your inbox every Friday.

There are half a dozen fairs running next week in the Big Apple. Chief among them is Frieze New York, which opens to VIPs at the Shed on Wednesday, May 13, with 68 galleries, around half of which are New York-based. Meanwhile, more than $1.8 billion worth of art is set to go under the hammer across the major auction houses, starting at Sotheby’s on May 14, where Robert Mnuchin’s monumental Rothko is poised to bring in $70 million to $100 million. The house’s total low estimate of $690.4 million for the week is roughly 70 percent higher than the total hammer price achieved in the same auctions last year.

If November’s auctions suggested the market had found its footing again, May’s sales will reveal whether that momentum has staying power.

Mark Rothko, Brown and Blacks in Reds (1957). Courtesy of Sotheby’s.

Rebalancing Act

The amount of high-value material coming to auction suggests confidence in the market right now, New York-based advisor Megan Fox Kelly told me over the phone, adding that there’s plenty of “appetite” among collectors to digest it all. That’s great news for an industry still trying to shake off three lean years.

Beyond the very top end, a rebalancing act continues. Sales may be steadying, but they are “measured,” said dealer Margot Samel, who is prepping for the third—and final—edition of Esther, the fun and frisky alternative fair that she and Tallinn-based gallerist Olga Temnikova launched in 2024. Opening May 12, it’s the de facto kick-off event for the week.

“I’ve had sold-out exhibitions where the last work sells on the last day,” Samel said, noting that such a long sales timeline would have been unheard of three or four years ago. “There’s less impulse buying now.”

That seems to be the case across the board. Fox Kelly, who is planning to hit Frieze (through May 17) and TEFAF New York (May 15–19) said that, lately, her clients more often than not go to fairs to look for “reinforcement” about artists that they “haven’t acted on yet,” rather than to buy a specific work.

TEFAF New York at the Park Avenue Armory. Photo: Kirsten Chilstrom.

Staying Practical

Samel also said that there’s been a “practical shift” among dealers, especially as shipping and travel becomes more complicated—and more expensive. New York-based galleries make up around 60 percent of Esther’s 21 exhibitors this year, versus just 30 percent in 2025. “I wouldn’t frame it as local, but intentional,” she said. “Galleries have to be more selective.”

(It’s worth noting, however, that the larger events—Frieze and TEFAF—have seen a slight uptick in the number of international exhibitors this year, versus 2025.)

Intentionality has always been Samel’s goal with Esther, which reprises its storied Estonian House venue for its last hurrah. The booth-less collaborative fair was originally supposed to be a one-off event focused on showing galleries and artists that don’t always have the opportunity to come to New York. “But one thing led to another,” she said, adding that the only reason she decided to do three editions in the end is because she’s superstitious. “It had to be an odd number.” The fair will close on a high note May 16 with a Eurovision watch-party.

Installation view of Leroy Johnson’s work at Esther II at the New York Estonian House. Photo: Mathew Sherman.

For Samel, sustainability in the current market means “being clear about what this is, and what we’re doing. We’re not trying to scale up.” She wants to stay connected to her artists and her community, which by all accounts she seems to be doing with aplomb. When I caught her on the phone, she was whipping up an Eastern European feast for the celebratory dinner she’s hosting after Sasha Brodsky‘s solo show opening at the gallery; both Samel’s and Brodsky’s moms helped.

Things are cooking in New York.